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Michaelmaync

16 Jun 2025 - 01:03 am

There’s a ‘ghost hurricane’ in the forecast. It could help predict a real one
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A scary-looking weather forecast showing a hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast in the second half of June swirled around social media this week—but don’t panic.

It’s the season’s first “ghost hurricane.”

Similar hype plays out every hurricane season, especially at the beginning: A cherry-picked, worst-case-scenario model run goes viral, but more often than not, will never come to fruition.

Unofficially dubbed “ghost storms” or “ghost hurricanes,” these tropical systems regularly appear in weather models — computer simulations that help meteorologists forecast future conditions — but never seem to manifest in real life.

The model responsible this week was the Global Forecast System, also known as the GFS or American model, run by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It’s one of many used by forecasters around the world.

All models have known biases or “quirks” where they tend to overpredict or underpredict certain things. The GFS is known to overpredict tropical storms and hurricanes in longer-term forecasts that look more than a week into the future, which leads to these false alarms. The GFS isn’t alone in this — all models struggle to accurately predict tropical activity that far in advance — but it is notorious for doing so.

For example, the GFS could spit out a prediction for a US hurricane landfall about 10 days from now, only to have that chance completely disappear as the forecast date draws closer. This can occur at any time of the year, but is most frequent during hurricane season — June through November.

It’s exactly what’s been happening over the past week as forecasters keep an eye out for the first storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
Why so many ghosts?
No weather forecast model is designed in the exact same way as another, and that’s why each can generate different results with similar data.

The reason the GFS has more false alarms when looking more than a week out than similar models – like Europe’s ECMWF, Canada’s CMC or the United Kingdom’s UKM – is because that’s exactly what it’s programmed to do, according to Alicia Bentley, the global verification project lead of NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center.

The GFS was built with a “weak parameterized cumulus convection scheme,” according to Bentley. In plain language, that means when the GFS thinks there could be thunderstorms developing in an area where tropical systems are possible – over the oceans – it’s more likely to jump to the conclusion that something tropical will develop than to ignore it.

Other models aren’t built to be quite as sensitive to this phenomenon, and so they don’t show a tropical system until they’re more confident the right conditions are in place, which usually happens when the forecast gets closer in time.

The western Caribbean Sea is one of the GFS’ favorite places to predict a ghost storm. That’s because of the Central American gyre: a large, disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms that rotates over the region and its surrounding water.

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15 Jun 2025 - 10:21 pm

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The cathedral is managed by Live-in Guardians, a company finding occupants for disused properties, including schools, libraries and pubs, across Britain. The residents — so-called property guardians — pay a fixed monthly “license fee,” which is usually much lower than the typical rent in the same area.
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15 Jun 2025 - 10:16 pm

Arzteprasident Klaus Reinhardt warnte vor gravierenden Versorgungslucken und hob die Bedeutung eines geplanten Primararztsystems hervor.
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Oppositionspolitiker – insbesondere aus der AfD – kritisierten eine massive Unterfinanzierung, Personalmangel und lange Wartezeiten. Sie fordern hohere Investitionen, eine Ruckfuhrung von Kliniken in kommunale Tragerschaft sowie einen deutlichen Burokratieabbau. Viele Burgerinnen und Burger mussten bereits monatelang auf einen Facharzttermin warten, wahrend die Krankenkassenbeitrage stetig steigen.
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Mehr zum Thema – "Vollig losgelost" – GroKo degradiert Lauterbach in den Ausschuss fur Raumfahrt

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15 Jun 2025 - 09:56 pm

London
CNN
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Opposite a bed in central London, light filters through a stained-glass window depicting, in fragments of copper and blue, Jesus Christ.
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Applications to become guardians are going “through the roof,” with more people in their late thirties and forties signing on than in the past, said Arthur Duke, the founder and managing director of Live-in Guardians.
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Jasoneroks

15 Jun 2025 - 09:50 pm

WASHINGTON — “Liberation Day” just gave way to Capitulation Day.
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President Donald Trump pulled back Wednesday on a series of harsh tariffs targeting friends and foes alike in an audacious bid to remake the global economic order.

Trump's early afternoon announcement followed a harrowing week in which Republican lawmakers and confidants privately warned him that the tariffs could wreck the economy. His own aides had quietly raised alarms about the financial markets before he suspended a tariff regime that he had unveiled with a flourish just one week earlier in a Rose Garden ceremony.

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Trump reversed course one week after he appeared in the Rose Garden and unveiled his plan to bring jobs back to the United States. Displaying a chart showing the new, elevated tariffs that countries would face, Trump proclaimed, “My fellow Americans, this is Liberation Day.”
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15 Jun 2025 - 09:21 pm

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